Iran Readies Carrier Barge for Show of Force

Satellite imagery shows Iran repairing the U.S. carrier mock-up it previously targeted during the Great Prophet 9 military exercise in February 2015. The first signs that Iran may have renewed plans for the mockup occurred between July and August 2019. At the time, workers relocated the barge inside the breakwaters at Bandar Abbas naval base to begin repairs.

While work was not initiated until October, imagery acquired in November shows substantial patchwork already completed as well as ongoing reconstruction of the lattice structure supporting the barge’s deck. The steady increase in repairs suggests that it could be used in an upcoming military exercise before the end of the Iranian year in March 2020.

It’s expected Iran will likely target the barge inside the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate its capabilities against a would-be aggressor. During the previous 2015 exercise, Iran struck the mock-up with multiple land-based anti-ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, fast attack craft, as well as suicide vessels. A final phase saw Iranian Special Forces fast-rope from helicopters onto the barge surface and attack the mock-up’s superstructure.

Iran’s ongoing signaling of its ability to strike U.S. assets in the Strait of Hormuz further reiterates its anti-access/area denial strategy. It is also keenly aware that any potential disruption to trade flows would likely impact the global economy. According to data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, approximately 21 million barrels flowed through the vital chokepoint in 2018.

In light of the U.S. assassination of Qassim Suleimani and retaliatory strikes against U.S. positions in Iraq, Iran rehearsing an attack against a U.S. carrier would serve to further inflame tensions. At present, it’s unknown if Iran has planned other escalating measures.

Bottom Line – Iran will likely demonstrate its ability to attack a U.S. carrier in the Gulf before the end of the Iranian year, but repairs to the barge began before the recent tensions around Suleimani’s death.

Link - Iran Readies Carrier Barge for Show of Force

Al-Shabab claims attack on base serving US, Kenyan troops

AIROBI, Kenya (AP) — A Kenyan police official says five suspects have been arrested after the al-Shabab extremist group on early Sunday attacked a military base used by U.S. and Kenyan troops.

Lamu county commissioner Irungu Macharia told The Associated Press the five suspects are being interrogated about the attack.

The U.S. Africa Command confirmed the attack on Camp Simba in Lamu county. Spokesman Col. Christopher Karns called al-Shabab's claims, including of inflicting severe casualties, "grossly exaggerated."

There was no report of U.S. or Kenyan deaths. The camp has under 100 U.S. personnel, according to Pentagon figures.

An internal Kenyan police report seen by The Associated Press said two fixed-wing aircraft, a U.S. Cessna and a Kenyan one, were destroyed along with two U.S. helicopters and multiple U.S. vehicles at the Manda Bay military airstrip. The report said explosions were heard at around 5:30 a.m. from the direction of the airstrip. The scene, now secured, indicated that al-Shabab likely gained entry "to conduct targeted attacks," the report said.

Al-Shabab's claim of responsibility said the attack destroyed U.S. equipment including aircraft and vehicles. It said fighters covertly "entered enemy lines" and that the attack was ongoing.

Kenya's military, however, said that "the airstrip is safe." It said that "arising from the unsuccessful breach a fire broke out affecting some of the fuel tanks located at the airstrip." The Kenya Civil Aviation Authority said the airstrip was closed for all operations.

Al-Shabab, which is linked to al-Qaida, is based in neighboring Somalia and has launched a number of attacks in Kenya. The group has been the target of a growing number of U.S. airstrikes during President Donald Trump's administration.

The latest attack comes just over a week after an al-Shabab truck bomb in Somalia's capital killed at least 79 people and U.S. airstrikes killed seven al-Shabab fighters in response.

Last year al-Shabab attacked a U.S. military base inside Somalia. The extremist group has carried out multiple attacks against Kenyan troops in the past in retaliation for Kenya sending troops to Somalia to fight it. Al-Shabab also has attacked civilian targets in Kenya including buses, schools and shopping malls.

The early Sunday attack comes days after a U.S. airstrike killed Iran's top military commander and Iran vowed retaliation, but al-Shabab is a Sunni Muslim group and there is no sign of links to Shiite Iran or proxies.

Analyst Rashid Abdi in Twitter posts discussing the attack said it had nothing to do with the tensions in the Middle East but added that Kenyan security services have long been worried that Iran was trying to cultivate ties with al-Shabab.

"Avowedly Wahhabist Al-Shabaab not natural ally of Shia Iran, hostile, even. But if Kenyan claims true, AS attack may have been well-timed to signal to Iran it is open for tactical alliances," he wrote, adding that "an AS that forges relations with Iran is nightmare scenario."

When asked whether the U.S. military was looking into any Iranian link to the attack, spokesman Karns said only that "al-Shabab, affiliated with al-Qaida, has their own agenda and have made clear their desire to attack U.S. interests."

The al-Shabab claim of responsibility said Sunday's attack was part of its "Jerusalem will never be Judaized" campaign, a rarely made reference that also was used after al-Shabab's deadly attack on a luxury mall complex in Kenya's capital, Nairobi, in January 2019.

U.S. Immediate Response Force Equipment Deploys to Central Command

U.S. Air Force Airmen load equipment assigned to 1st Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division, onto a C-17 Globemaster III aircraft bound for the U.S. Central Command area of operations from Fort Bragg, N.C. on January 4, 2020. This deployment is a precautionary action taken to respond to increased threat levels against U.S. personnel and facilities. The 'Devil' Brigade is the nucleus of the U.S. Immediate Response Force, capable of rapidly deploying anywhere in the world in response to a variety of contingency operations. (U.S. Army video by Sgt. 1st Class Jason Hull).

Paratroopers and equipment assigned to 1st Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division load aircraft bound for the U.S. Central Command area of operations from Fort Bragg, N.C. on January 4, 2019. This deployment is a precautionary action taken to respond to increased threat levels against U.S. personnel and facilities. The 'Devil' Brigade is the nucleus of the U.S. Immediate Response Force, capable of rapidly deploying anywhere in the world in response to a variety of contingency operations.

VIA DVIDSHUB